Another below average week in terms of volatility, our biases really remain unchanged.

  • U.S stocks are still not out the woods yet. Though we think the next big move will certainly have longer term significance. In Europe, many indices are still grinding upwards but directional biases are neutral at this time.
  • Same story as the past few months in FX. Strength in the euro and pound over the U.S dollar is very likely to persist. The best play in rates and FX has to be the short setup in U.S bonds.
  • Gold getting ready to breakout and crude oil making new highs once again. Absolutely the two trades in commodities that must be on your watch list.


Market: S&P500

Reason for observation: Daily bear flag setup

Short-term bias: Bearish

Long-term bias: Bullish

Not in the clear yet in U.S stocks. The short-term bear flag still is the main catalyst for a quick move lower. However, what is becoming more clear now is a large weekly bull flag in an established uptrend. Should the bulls invalidate the short-term bearish concerns, that large weekly bull flag will likely take over as the focus.


Market: FTSE

Reason for observation: Large daily consolidation

Short-term bias: Neutral

Long-term bias: Bullish

We can see a pretty defined range here in the FTSE. The dip below the range a few weeks ago was quickly absorbed and reversed. We think a pretty good idea is to be bullish above the box and bearish below the box.


Market: GBPUSD

Reason for observation: Daily bull flag trigger

Short-term bias: Bullish

Long-term bias: Bullish

Pound/dollar moving above the previous pivot high. This may actually be the beginning of an even larger move should it make new highs.


Market: 20 yr U.S tsy

Reason for observation: Daily bear flag setup

Short-term bias: Bearish

Long-term bias: Bearish

A move below the lower trendline is a great place to establish short positions. All signs pointing south in U.S bonds.


Market: Gold

Reason for observation: Potential breakout

Short-term bias: Bullish

Long-term bias: Neutral

Actually now leaning bullish on Gold. Higher lows into the breakout zone and a small range below is a classic breakout setup. Traders can either play a front-run of the breakout, the breakout itself or the first pullback after the breakout, should the breakout actually occur obviously.


Market: Crude oil

Reason for observation: Daily bull flag trigger

Short-term bias: Bullish

Long-term bias: Bullish

Crude oil the best place to looks for long trades in the past year. All pullbacks resolving easily to the upside. More new highs on the way.