Relatively quiet week, biases remain unchanged for the most part.

  • Much of the same in global stocks. We are waiting for the “next big move”, which will be extremely telling for our long-term biases.
  • Not much to mention in FX. GBPUSD has failed bullish patterns near previous pivot highs, down almost 2 sigma on the week. The focus should be in rates, as U.S bonds are finally rolling over to the downside. That is shown in detail below.
  • Not losing track of the Gold breakout potential. A lot of talk of Silver but we don’t see much there. Crude oil making new closing highs, the clear winner of commodities for quite some time now.


Market: S&P500

Reason for observation: Daily bear flag setup

Short-term bias: Bearish

Long-term bias: Bullish

Really interesting junction here. Daily bear flag is still very real but a failure of that pattern may spark a massive rally. As we mentioned last report, that would point our focus towards the large weekly bull flag, which could be the catalyst for a year-long rally in U.S stocks.


Market: FTSE

Reason for observation: Continuation off of lows

Short-term bias: Neutral

Long-term bias: Bullish

European markets still going straight up from March lows. Hard to get outright bullish in the short-term, so we are staying neutral for now.


Market: U.S Dollar

Reason for observation: Weekly bear flag setup

Short-term bias: Bearish

Long-term bias: Bearish

Traders calling for a bottom in the dollar? We prefer to wait for more confirmation, until we see a strong weekly move upwards, this market is primed in a large consolidation ready to move lower.


Market: 20 yr U.S tsy

Reason for observation: Daily bear flag trigger

Short-term bias: Bearish

Long-term bias: Bearish

We have been waiting for this one for quite some time. Patience was required but the trade is unfolding nicely. A ton of downside potential in U.S bonds, measured move target taking us down to the 100ish range.


Market: Copper

Reason for observation: More of the same

Short-term bias: Neutral

Long-term bias: Bullish

We still have an eye on Copper and many traders were talking about breakout potential last week as well. However, the actual setup is unclear but this market certainly has a bullish tone to it. We will need a lot more to happen before we get interested in taking trades.


Market: Crude oil

Reason for observation: Weekly closing highs

Short-term bias: Bullish

Long-term bias: Bullish

What an unbelievable run this has been for crude oil, certainly will be a place of focus for the rest of the year. Strike while the iron is hot.